Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4666 at 09:21 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 4666 BOS 09:21 → BUF 11:11 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 715 BOS 18:05 → BUF 19:46 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:21	BUF 11:11	11%	4%	1.4%	94%
B6 1215 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:43	BUF 10:22	16%	5%	1.4%	91%
B6 915 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:01	BUF 13:42	19%	9%	1.1%	75%
YX 4439 Republic	BOS 19:11	BUF 20:59	22%	11%	1.2%	no record
MQ 3401 Envoy	BOS 14:41	BUF 16:16	23%	8%	1.0%	no record
B6 715 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:05	BUF 19:46	36%	18%	1.3%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON