Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 786 at 05:36 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 786 BOS 05:36 → BWI 07:15 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2656 BOS 17:21 → BWI 18:59 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 786 Southwest	BOS 05:36	BWI 07:15	3%	1%	0.8%	no record
DL 5703 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:35	BWI 08:20	5%	2%	0.9%	90%
DL 5668 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:10	BWI 12:53	11%	4%	0.9%	84%
WN 2022 Southwest	BOS 09:09	BWI 10:47	11%	3%	1.4%	no record
DL 5644 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:50	BWI 17:42	14%	7%	0.9%	79%
WN 790 Southwest	BOS 10:44	BWI 12:22	15%	4%	1.4%	no record
WN 324 Southwest	BOS 13:08	BWI 14:46	17%	5%	0.7%	no record
DL 5851 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	BWI 22:29	18%	9%	1.0%	63%
WN 792 Southwest	BOS 14:38	BWI 16:16	19%	5%	0.7%	no record
WN 2656 Southwest	BOS 17:21	BWI 18:59	30%	10%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON