tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:55, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Bozeman on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Bozeman on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Bozeman is 2 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 2h 54m Minneapolis MSP 10:58 → BZN 12:31DL 2946 8h 36m 99% 93%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 11:09 → BZN 13:11DL 406 9h 41m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464 3h 00m Salt Lake City SLC 17:20 → BZN 18:44DL 3676 · flown by SkyWest 9h 29m 97% 89%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647 1h 36m Denver DEN 11:55 → BZN 13:55UA 741 8h 10m 98% 89%
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:21 → LAX 09:35UA 360 3h 15m Los Angeles LAX 12:50 → BZN 16:24UA 2212 12h 03m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324 3h 21m Chicago ORD 10:25 → BZN 13:06AA 1080 9h 56m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 1h 12m Charlotte CLT 09:42 → BZN 12:23AA 2415 8h 18m 95% 86%
UnitedDetails → BOS 06:00 → ORD 07:58UA 1414 1h 12m Chicago ORD 09:10 → BZN 11:44UA 224 7h 44m 95% 86%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON