Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5674 at 08:30 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–37%.

Safest bet that day DL 5674 BOS 08:30 → CLE 10:35 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest B6 1341 BOS 18:17 → CLE 20:20 · 37% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5674 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:30	CLE 10:35	14%	3%	1.3%	94%
DL 5641 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:54	CLE 17:06	16%	6%	1.1%	86%
B6 2041 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:44	CLE 10:43	21%	5%	1.5%	83%
B6 641 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:20	CLE 17:22	28%	11%	1.3%	85%worse than usual
DL 5655 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:55	CLE 23:07	29%	10%	1.0%	62%
B6 1341 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:17	CLE 20:20	37%	18%	1.3%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON