Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 418 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 418 BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 922 BOS 18:00 → CLT 20:19 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 418 American Flight history →	BOS 06:05	CLT 08:30	7%	3%	0.8%	96%
DL 5626 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	CLT 08:56	8%	2%	1.0%	89%
DL 5630 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:05	CLT 12:35	14%	4%	1.3%	88%
AA 2715 American Flight history →	BOS 08:05	CLT 10:30	14%	4%	0.9%	88%
AA 1742 American	BOS 07:19	CLT 09:37	14%	4%	0.8%	no record
DL 5837 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:13	CLT 16:54	15%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 1557 American Flight history →	BOS 11:49	CLT 14:09	22%	6%	0.9%	96%worse than usual
AA 1270 American	BOS 13:31	CLT 15:50	23%	7%	0.8%	no record
DL 5807 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:40	CLT 22:20	25%	11%	1.0%	66%
AA 885 American Flight history →	BOS 15:37	CLT 17:58	25%	8%	0.8%	85%
AA 922 American Flight history →	BOS 18:00	CLT 20:19	34%	12%	0.8%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON