Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5654 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day DL 5654 BOS 08:11 → CMH 10:31 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 5629 BOS 19:25 → CMH 21:50 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5654 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:11	CMH 10:31	10%	3%	1.2%	88%
YX 4373 Republic	BOS 08:58	CMH 11:16	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 5653 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:38	CMH 16:58	13%	5%	0.8%	82%
MQ 3922 Envoy	BOS 13:15	CMH 15:23	18%	6%	0.8%	no record
AA 4641 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:55	CMH 21:16	23%	8%	0.9%	69%
DL 5629 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:25	CMH 21:50	23%	8%	0.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON