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Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 27 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5687 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 5687 BOS 06:00 → DCA 07:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest B6 1955 BOS 17:16 → DCA 19:04 · 40% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.
DL 5687 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 06:00 DCA 07:49 7% 2% 1.2% 93%
AA 1535 American Flight history → BOS 06:00 DCA 07:54 8% 4% 1.4% 81%
AA 4342 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 06:54 DCA 08:47 9% 3% 1.2% 85%
B6 455 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 06:02 DCA 07:54 10% 4% 1.4% 68%
DL 5692 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 07:25 DCA 09:21 11% 3% 1.1% 89%
DL 5693 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 09:15 DCA 11:07 12% 4% 1.6% 87%
YX 4465 Republic BOS 08:22 DCA 10:15 13% 3% 1.6% no record
AA 3240 American Flight history → BOS 09:20 DCA 11:14 15% 6% 1.8% 85%
B6 1055 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 07:49 DCA 09:41 15% 6% 1.5% 86%
DL 5592 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 10:20 DCA 12:12 16% 5% 1.8% 85%
DL 5672 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 12:15 DCA 14:08 16% 7% 1.0% 85%
B6 2355 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 08:29 DCA 10:10 18% 7% 1.9% 66%
AA 4337 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 11:58 DCA 13:51 18% 6% 1.0% 60%
AA 1164 American BOS 11:03 DCA 13:00 19% 7% 1.5% no record
YX 4510 Republic BOS 14:24 DCA 16:17 20% 6% 0.9% no record
DL 5682 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 14:20 DCA 16:17 20% 6% 1.0% 69%
DL 5689 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 15:45 DCA 17:49 21% 9% 1.1% 69%
DL 5666 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 20:05 DCA 22:03 28% 11% 1.4% 59%
AA 4047 American flown by Envoy Flight history → BOS 20:22 DCA 22:19 29% 10% 4.2% 55%
B6 755 JetBlue BOS 14:10 DCA 16:03 29% 12% 1.3% no record
B6 855 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 12:53 DCA 14:34 30% 15% 1.1% 65%
AA 1004 American Flight history → BOS 19:56 DCA 21:54 30% 14% 1.1% 58%
DL 5667 Delta flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 17:50 DCA 19:56 31% 13% 1.3% 63%
AA 1421 American Flight history → BOS 17:50 DCA 19:53 33% 15% 1.2% 52%
B6 1355 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 16:14 DCA 18:00 37% 20% 1.4% 57%
B6 2255 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 18:04 DCA 19:58 39% 22% 1.3% 61%
B6 1955 JetBlue Flight history → BOS 17:16 DCA 19:04 40% 23% 1.3% 57%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON