Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 801 at 05:11 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 801 BOS 05:11 → DEN 07:41 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 809 BOS 16:56 → DEN 19:28 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 801 Southwest	BOS 05:11	DEN 07:41	5%	1%	0.6%	no record
UA 647 United Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:19	9%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2348 United	BOS 09:35	DEN 12:26	9%	4%	0.7%	no record
DL 499 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:45	DEN 10:21	10%	3%	0.6%	85%
UA 414 United Flight history →	BOS 12:22	DEN 14:53	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 802 Southwest	BOS 10:11	DEN 12:42	16%	3%	0.9%	no record
B6 393 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:17	DEN 11:54	20%	6%	1.0%	79%
UA 2297 United Flight history →	BOS 15:10	DEN 17:55	20%	9%	0.6%	86%
UA 1932 United	BOS 20:56	DEN 23:43	22%	9%	0.6%	no record
UA 800 United Flight history →	BOS 16:57	DEN 19:45	27%	10%	0.6%	75%
WN 809 Southwest	BOS 16:56	DEN 19:28	38%	10%	0.6%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	6h 17m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	51m Minneapolis	MSP 08:55 → DEN 10:03DL 2849	6h 08m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	1h 18m Detroit	DTW 12:42 → DEN 13:45DL 1648	6h 30m	92%	79%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON