Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2527 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–34%.

Safest bet that day AA 2527 BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1401 BOS 18:24 → DFW 21:31 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 50% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2527 American Flight history →	BOS 06:00	DFW 09:22	7%	3%	1.2%	91%
AA 701 American Flight history →	BOS 08:01	DFW 11:21	11%	4%	1.1%	91%
AA 397 American	BOS 07:03	DFW 10:05	12%	3%	1.1%	no record
DL 760 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:15	DFW 10:23	13%	4%	0.7%	78%
AA 479 American Flight history →	BOS 09:01	DFW 12:19	13%	4%	1.2%	85%
AA 1209 American	BOS 08:31	DFW 11:38	13%	4%	1.1%	no record
DL 303 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:05	DFW 15:17	15%	6%	0.7%	69%
AA 1438 American Flight history →	BOS 13:11	DFW 16:24	17%	6%	1.0%	69%
AA 1442 American Flight history →	BOS 14:46	DFW 17:58	21%	7%	1.0%	58%
AA 3102 American Flight history →	BOS 15:49	DFW 18:55	22%	8%	1.0%	70%
DL 2305 Delta Flight history →	BOS 19:20	DFW 22:39	28%	11%	0.7%	67%
AA 1401 American Flight history →	BOS 18:24	DFW 21:31	34%	11%	1.3%	50%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → DFW 10:24DL 2746	5h 54m	94%	81%
American Details →	BOS 05:55 → PHL 07:35AA 1540	47m Philadelphia	PHL 08:22 → DFW 10:46AA 3307	5h 51m	91%	76%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	49m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → DFW 17:27DL 374	5h 57m	79%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON