Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1019 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 1019 BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest B6 1337 BOS 20:33 → DTW 22:45 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1019 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:30	DTW 07:38	5%	2%	0.7%	95%
DL 1748 Delta Flight history →	BOS 09:15	DTW 11:24	13%	4%	0.9%	88%
DL 2222 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:10	DTW 15:20	18%	7%	0.7%	81%
DL 8880 Delta	BOS 14:48	DTW 16:51	19%	6%	0.7%	no record
B6 837 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:29	DTW 10:37	19%	6%	1.1%	79%
DL 2896 Delta Flight history →	BOS 21:05	DTW 23:21	21%	8%	0.6%	56%
DL 1432 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:15	DTW 19:39	30%	11%	0.6%	70%
B6 1237 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:57	DTW 19:07	39%	15%	0.9%	65%
B6 1337 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:33	DTW 22:45	42%	14%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON