Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 1833 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 45–52%.

Safest bet that day UA 1833 BOS 06:05 → EWR 07:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 555 BOS 17:56 → EWR 19:26 · 52% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1833 United Flight history →	BOS 06:05	EWR 07:29	8%	3%	1.9%	94%
DL 5764 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:25	EWR 07:54	8%	3%	3.2%	94%
UA 570 United Flight history →	BOS 08:00	EWR 09:23	13%	5%	2.6%	90%
UA 1307 United Flight history →	BOS 09:30	EWR 10:58	16%	6%	1.8%	90%
UA 2394 United Flight history →	BOS 10:58	EWR 12:26	20%	10%	2.1%	88%
UA 2104 United	BOS 12:30	EWR 13:59	27%	17%	1.3%	no record
DL 5829 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:55	EWR 14:22	31%	14%	2.3%	71%
DL 5718 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:15	EWR 19:58	45%	18%	2.4%	60%
UA 2060 United Flight history →	BOS 20:27	EWR 22:00	45%	21%	1.0%	64%
UA 1647 United Flight history →	BOS 15:45	EWR 17:14	48%	26%	1.1%	41%
UA 1693 United Flight history →	BOS 18:58	EWR 20:28	51%	25%	1.1%	69%worse than usual
UA 555 United	BOS 17:56	EWR 19:26	52%	28%	1.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON