Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 569 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 21–44%.

Safest bet that day B6 569 BOS 05:10 → FLL 08:30 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest B6 369 BOS 18:10 → FLL 21:27 · 44% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 569 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 05:10	FLL 08:30	14%	3%	1.3%	82%
DL 1401 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:55	FLL 11:24	21%	4%	0.8%	82%
B6 69 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:23	FLL 11:43	31%	10%	1.2%	68%
DL 2196 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:32	FLL 19:04	36%	11%	0.9%	62%
G4 3473 Allegiant	BOS 12:35	FLL 15:44	40%	18%	1.3%	no record
B6 269 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 14:47	FLL 18:07	41%	16%	1.0%	59%
B6 369 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:10	FLL 21:27	44%	20%	1.5%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON