Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 226 at 07:25 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–30%.

Safest bet that day UA 226 BOS 07:25 → IAH 10:35 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest UA 1392 BOS 17:35 → IAH 20:55 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 226 United Flight history →	BOS 07:25	IAH 10:35	11%	3%	0.7%	94%
UA 1976 United Flight history →	BOS 13:37	IAH 16:57	16%	7%	0.6%	90%
UA 396 United	BOS 10:11	IAH 13:44	17%	5%	0.9%	no record
UA 1183 United Flight history →	BOS 15:54	IAH 19:08	24%	10%	0.6%	71%
B6 2033 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:15	IAH 12:23	27%	7%	1.3%	73%
UA 1392 United Flight history →	BOS 17:35	IAH 20:55	30%	12%	0.6%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → IAH 10:37DL 1043	6h 07m	95%	83%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:15 → DTW 11:24DL 1748	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 12:26 → IAH 14:19DL 1307	6h 04m	88%	73%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	1h 04m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → IAH 17:31DL 1131	6h 01m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON