Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 4786 Republic	BOS 10:02	ILM 12:24	12%	4%	1.1%	no record
B6 1293 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:35	ILM 13:43	19%	6%	0.7%	78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Wilmington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → ILM 13:43DL 731	8h 13m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 24m Atlanta	ATL 16:28 → ILM 18:03DL 1292	7h 48m	99%	88%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	3h 43m Charlotte	CLT 12:13 → ILM 13:19AA 5416 · flown by PSA	7h 14m	98%	86%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 45m Chicago	ORD 08:49 → ILM 12:12AA 3970 · flown by Envoy	7h 02m	98%	86%
American Details →	BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715	2h 35m Charlotte	CLT 13:05 → ILM 14:19AA 5809 · flown by Piedmont	6h 14m	95%	81%
American Details →	BOS 11:49 → CLT 14:09AA 1557	3h 06m Charlotte	CLT 17:15 → ILM 18:27AA 2105	6h 38m	100%	80%
American Details →	BOS 05:55 → PHL 07:35AA 1540	3h 05m Philadelphia	PHL 10:40 → ILM 12:28AA 5978 · flown by Piedmont	6h 33m	98%	79%
American Details →	BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764	3h 32m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	6h 54m	96%	76%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 10:49 → PHL 12:26AA 2783	46m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → ILM 14:59AA 6133 · flown by Piedmont	4h 08m	69%	55%
American Details →	BOS 17:33 → LGA 18:57AA 4430 · flown by Republic	1h 02m New York	LGA 19:59 → ILM 22:01AA 4792 · flown by Republic	4h 28m	65%	49%
Delta Details →	BOS 18:00 → LGA 19:34DL 5831 · flown by Republic	56m New York	LGA 20:30 → ILM 22:44DL 5204 · flown by Endeavor	4h 44m	58%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON