Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4385 at 07:19 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23%.

Safest bet that day YX 4385 BOS 07:19 → IND 09:58 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest YX 4675 BOS 16:59 → IND 19:40 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4385 Republic	BOS 07:19	IND 09:58	9%	3%	0.9%	no record
DL 5628 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 07:35	IND 10:16	9%	3%	0.9%	88%
DL 5627 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:59	IND 16:46	13%	7%	0.9%	85%
YX 4393 Republic	BOS 10:52	IND 13:31	13%	5%	1.3%	no record
G4 594 Allegiant Flight history →	BOS 09:05	IND 11:27	22%	8%	1.0%	88%worse than usual
DL 5616 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:45	IND 20:34	23%	9%	0.8%	77%
YX 4675 Republic	BOS 16:59	IND 19:40	23%	8%	0.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON