Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 109 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–31%.

Safest bet that day B6 109 BOS 07:05 → JAX 09:56 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 85% on time Riskiest B6 509 BOS 16:50 → JAX 19:45 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 109 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:05	JAX 09:56	14%	4%	1.1%	85%
DL 5597 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:50	JAX 11:44	21%	4%	9.2%	83%
DL 5657 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:35	JAX 18:41	21%	9%	0.9%	76%
DL 5593 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:35	JAX 23:39	28%	10%	0.9%	71%
B6 509 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:50	JAX 19:45	31%	14%	1.4%	68%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON