Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4357 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 4357 BOS 05:57 → JFK 07:20 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 100% on time Riskiest B6 817 BOS 19:39 → JFK 21:00 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4357 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 05:57	JFK 07:20	4%	2%	2.2%	100%
DL 2611 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:05	JFK 07:30	5%	3%	1.1%	93%
B6 917 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:12	JFK 08:30	10%	4%	2.2%	94%
DL 5720 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:05	JFK 10:24	11%	4%	2.6%	87%
B6 1017 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:41	JFK 09:59	15%	6%	3.4%	67%
B6 8361 JetBlue	BOS 10:08	JFK 11:26	17%	8%	2.2%	no record
AA 4687 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:30	JFK 12:53	17%	5%	1.7%	66%
DL 5808 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:35	JFK 15:10	20%	8%	1.4%	76%
B6 1117 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:18	JFK 12:37	21%	8%	1.6%	75%
B6 717 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 12:45	JFK 14:00	26%	13%	1.5%	62%
YX 4745 Republic	BOS 17:28	JFK 18:51	32%	12%	1.7%	no record
DL 5814 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:05	JFK 18:42	33%	13%	1.8%	66%
B6 317 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:09	JFK 17:29	33%	15%	1.6%	60%
B6 817 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:39	JFK 21:00	42%	19%	2.1%	55%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON