Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 497 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 37–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 497 BOS 07:50 → LAS 10:32 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time Riskiest B6 777 BOS 19:59 → LAS 22:47 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 497 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:50	LAS 10:32	13%	3%	0.7%	83%
B6 1577 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:09	LAS 09:48	20%	4%	0.8%	68%
B6 1177 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:33	LAS 13:11	26%	7%	1.0%	87%worse than usual
B6 177 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:10	LAS 20:52	37%	15%	0.7%	68%
B6 777 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:59	LAS 22:47	39%	15%	0.7%	65%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 09m Minneapolis	MSP 09:13 → LAS 10:31DL 2262	7h 36m	98%	87%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 30m Dulles	IAD 08:53 → LAS 10:54UA 1323	8h 09m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 48m Minneapolis	MSP 11:10 → LAS 12:26DL 2238	8h 16m	99%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON