Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 479 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 21–33%.

Safest bet that day DL 479 BOS 06:20 → LAX 09:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time Riskiest B6 387 BOS 17:58 → LAX 21:18 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 479 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	LAX 09:35	10%	3%	0.7%	81%
UA 360 United Flight history →	BOS 06:21	LAX 09:35	11%	2%	0.7%	92%
AA 2455 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	LAX 10:19	13%	3%	0.8%	87%
DL 2004 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:55	LAX 14:03	15%	5%	0.9%	89%
UA 659 United	BOS 11:50	LAX 15:20	16%	7%	0.7%	no record
B6 287 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:00	LAX 09:09	16%	3%	0.8%	85%
AA 2141 American	BOS 10:28	LAX 13:34	18%	7%	1.1%	no record
B6 687 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:40	LAX 10:50	19%	4%	0.8%	87%
DL 318 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:25	LAX 19:44	21%	10%	0.6%	74%
B6 1487 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LAX 14:09	23%	7%	0.8%	77%
B6 1187 JetBlue	BOS 15:54	LAX 19:14	23%	11%	0.8%	no record
DL 610 Delta	BOS 20:40	LAX 23:52	25%	10%	0.6%	no record
UA 639 United Flight history →	BOS 18:26	LAX 21:51	28%	14%	0.7%	67%
AA 1578 American Flight history →	BOS 17:33	LAX 20:55	29%	12%	0.8%	67%
B6 387 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:58	LAX 21:18	33%	15%	0.7%	69%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 09:20 → LAX 11:10DL 2102	8h 15m	98%	87%
American Details →	BOS 05:57 → JFK 07:20AA 4357 · flown by Republic	1h 40m New York	JFK 09:00 → LAX 11:58AA 1	9h 01m	100%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	1h 41m Atlanta	ATL 14:45 → LAX 16:17DL 753	9h 02m	95%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON