Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 23 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: YX 4630 at 05:59 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–42%.

Safest bet that day YX 4630 BOS 05:59 → LGA 07:23 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 5716 BOS 18:59 → LGA 20:29 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4630 Republic	BOS 05:59	LGA 07:23	6%	3%	3.1%	no record
YX 5804 Republic	BOS 06:06	LGA 07:30	8%	3%	2.9%	no record
AA 4470 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:58	LGA 08:22	9%	3%	3.1%	78%
DL 2524 Delta	BOS 07:00	LGA 08:14	11%	4%	1.7%	no record
DL 5735 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:00	LGA 09:25	15%	4%	3.6%	87%
DL 5732 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:00	LGA 10:22	16%	5%	2.3%	88%
YX 4371 Republic	BOS 08:13	LGA 09:42	17%	4%	2.4%	no record
DL 5744 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:00	LGA 11:15	18%	5%	2.7%	86%
YX 4386 Republic	BOS 10:36	LGA 12:00	19%	6%	2.7%	no record
DL 5854 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 12:00	LGA 13:21	20%	10%	1.9%	71%
DL 5755 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:00	LGA 12:19	21%	5%	1.8%	85%
DL 5748 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 13:00	LGA 14:27	21%	11%	1.7%	82%
AA 1461 American	BOS 12:28	LGA 13:52	24%	13%	1.5%	no record
DL 5730 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 14:00	LGA 15:20	24%	9%	2.0%	77%
DL 5736 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:00	LGA 16:30	29%	12%	1.8%	74%
AA 1629 American	BOS 14:22	LGA 15:46	31%	12%	1.4%	no record
DL 5726 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:00	LGA 17:30	35%	14%	1.9%	68%
YX 5621 Republic	BOS 20:05	LGA 21:29	37%	19%	2.3%	no record
AA 4430 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:33	LGA 18:57	38%	16%	1.8%	60%
DL 5831 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:00	LGA 19:34	39%	21%	2.1%	65%
DL 5721 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:00	LGA 18:29	39%	16%	2.3%	69%
AA 4724 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 19:34	LGA 20:58	41%	20%	2.5%	57%
DL 5716 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 18:59	LGA 20:29	42%	22%	2.3%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON