tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4715 at 20:30, with a 27% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4715 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 20:30 MDT 22:10 27% 11% 1.1% 69%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Harrisburg on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695 2h 49m Atlanta ATL 12:23 → MDT 14:25DL 1354 7h 40m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 15:41 → MDT 17:37DL 2857 7h 22m 97% 83%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 12m Dulles IAD 08:35 → MDT 09:40UA 4986 · flown by CommuteAir 3h 55m 97% 82%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098 1h 38m Dulles IAD 12:45 → MDT 13:50UA 4372 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 25m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764 3h 15m Philadelphia PHL 12:55 → MDT 14:00AA 5963 · flown by Piedmont 5h 57m 96% 79%
AmericanDetails → BOS 05:55 → PHL 07:35AA 1540 1h 25m Philadelphia PHL 09:00 → MDT 10:08AA 5829 · flown by Piedmont 4h 13m 96% 78%
AmericanDetails → BOS 12:58 → PHL 14:39AA 2086 3h 11m Philadelphia PHL 17:50 → MDT 18:57AA 5949 · flown by Piedmont 5h 59m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:05 → CLT 10:30AA 2715 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 13:12 → MDT 15:00AA 5832 · flown by Piedmont 6h 55m 95% 75%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:55AA 1776 55m Philadelphia PHL 17:50 → MDT 18:57AA 5949 · flown by Piedmont 3h 43m 67% 51%
AmericanDetails → BOS 16:33 → ORD 18:25AA 1479 46m Chicago ORD 19:11 → MDT 22:30AA 2400 5h 57m 54% 39%
AmericanDetails → BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309 56m Philadelphia PHL 19:45 → MDT 21:03AA 6109 · flown by Piedmont 3h 55m 62% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON