Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Memphis on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	8h 02m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 10m Detroit	DTW 08:48 → MEM 09:47DL 1627	5h 17m	96%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 06m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 33m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 13:49 → MEM 14:15DL 733	7h 15m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:07DL 1681	7h 52m	99%	85%
American Details →	BOS 06:00 → DFW 09:22AA 2527	3h 31m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:53 → MEM 14:35AA 3888 · flown by Envoy	9h 35m	99%	85%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	1h 45m Charlotte	CLT 10:15 → MEM 11:09AA 1790	6h 04m	96%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	3h 13m Atlanta	ATL 15:08 → MEM 15:30DL 1700	7h 25m	99%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309	1h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 20:08 → MEM 21:36AA 5387 · flown by PSA	5h 31m	74%	56%
Delta Details →	BOS 17:00 → LGA 18:29DL 5721 · flown by Republic	1h 21m New York	LGA 19:50 → MEM 21:37DL 5606 · flown by Republic	5h 37m	71%	49%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON