Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1418 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35%.

Safest bet that day AA 1418 BOS 05:10 → MIA 08:38 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest AA 1184 BOS 18:16 → MIA 21:41 · 35% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1418 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	MIA 08:38	7%	2%	1.2%	96%
AA 1865 American	BOS 04:56	MIA 08:22	12%	4%	1.2%	no record
DL 1399 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MIA 10:35	14%	4%	0.9%	86%
AA 1259 American Flight history →	BOS 08:00	MIA 11:34	15%	4%	1.0%	90%
AA 2980 American Flight history →	BOS 11:01	MIA 14:23	22%	6%	1.0%	94%worse than usual
DL 776 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:15	MIA 18:58	31%	12%	0.9%	64%
AA 2145 American	BOS 15:26	MIA 18:48	32%	11%	1.1%	no record
AA 2143 American	BOS 17:26	MIA 20:50	35%	12%	1.3%	no record
AA 1184 American	BOS 18:16	MIA 21:41	35%	13%	1.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON