Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2303 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 6–24%.

Safest bet that day DL 2303 BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest DL 1098 BOS 17:55 → MSP 20:21 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2303 Delta Flight history →	BOS 05:55	MSP 08:04	4%	2%	0.6%	95%
DL 1138 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:10	MSP 09:22	6%	3%	0.6%	90%
DL 1308 Delta Flight history →	BOS 08:16	MSP 10:27	10%	3%	0.6%	75%
DL 1103 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:50	MSP 14:02	12%	4%	0.6%	86%
DL 1127 Delta Flight history →	BOS 14:52	MSP 17:05	15%	6%	0.6%	76%
DL 1098 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:55	MSP 20:21	24%	11%	0.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON