Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–25% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 1398 Delta Flight history →	BOS 11:20	MSY 13:56	17%	5%	0.7%	85%
B6 401 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:35	MSY 14:08	25%	9%	0.8%	74%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 44m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	7h 07m	100%	92%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 17m Dulles	IAD 08:40 → MSY 10:24UA 2253	5h 39m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	3h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MSY 15:25DL 2695	9h 15m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	7h 17m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 15:23 → MSY 15:57DL 3146	7h 52m	99%	87%
American Details →	BOS 06:54 → DCA 08:47AA 4342 · flown by Republic	2h 38m Washington	DCA 11:25 → MSY 13:08AA 2586	7h 14m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 02m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790	5h 44m	95%	85%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	2h 27m Atlanta	ATL 17:48 → MSY 18:24DL 678	6h 54m	100%	85%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 10:49 → PHL 12:26AA 2783	46m Philadelphia	PHL 13:12 → MSY 15:19AA 1701	5h 30m	69%	55%
American Details →	BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309	49m Philadelphia	PHL 19:38 → MSY 21:35AA 549	5h 30m	56%	41%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON