Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 26 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 3324 at 05:10 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–49%.

Safest bet that day AA 3324 BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 811 BOS 17:10 → ORD 19:15 · 49% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3324 American Flight history →	BOS 05:10	ORD 07:04	7%	2%	1.5%	92%
UA 1414 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	ORD 07:58	8%	2%	1.0%	95%
AA 1509 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	ORD 09:01	12%	3%	1.5%	90%
UA 2631 United Flight history →	BOS 07:19	ORD 09:17	13%	4%	1.0%	91%
DL 2570 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:30	ORD 09:26	14%	4%	1.1%	82%
AA 1239 American Flight history →	BOS 08:58	ORD 11:00	14%	4%	1.5%	93%
UA 1349 United Flight history →	BOS 09:50	ORD 11:43	15%	5%	1.1%	87%
UA 503 United Flight history →	BOS 10:35	ORD 12:28	16%	6%	1.4%	86%
UA 1097 United	BOS 08:09	ORD 10:06	16%	4%	1.0%	no record
UA 1732 United Flight history →	BOS 12:30	ORD 14:23	19%	9%	0.8%	85%
AA 2607 American	BOS 10:26	ORD 12:15	20%	6%	2.1%	no record
B6 111 JetBlue	BOS 06:51	ORD 08:36	21%	5%	1.9%	no record
DL 2816 Delta Flight history →	BOS 12:25	ORD 14:19	23%	9%	1.2%	83%
AA 3048 American Flight history →	BOS 12:17	ORD 14:15	23%	9%	1.3%	81%
AA 547 American Flight history →	BOS 13:32	ORD 15:25	26%	10%	1.6%	74%
AA 1563 American Flight history →	BOS 15:19	ORD 17:29	27%	10%	1.3%	52%
UA 1475 United Flight history →	BOS 15:13	ORD 17:05	28%	10%	0.8%	65%
UA 2229 United Flight history →	BOS 20:15	ORD 22:15	31%	11%	0.7%	57%
DL 2804 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:45	ORD 22:39	32%	11%	1.0%	47%
DL 2646 Delta Flight history →	BOS 16:15	ORD 18:19	34%	15%	1.1%	61%
AA 1479 American Flight history →	BOS 16:33	ORD 18:25	38%	14%	1.3%	50%
UA 563 United	BOS 17:01	ORD 18:53	40%	14%	0.8%	no record
AA 3160 American	BOS 19:13	ORD 21:09	40%	13%	1.0%	no record
UA 1015 United Flight history →	BOS 18:43	ORD 20:40	41%	14%	0.8%	51%
AA 2837 American Flight history →	BOS 18:16	ORD 20:10	46%	16%	1.3%	40%
B6 811 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:10	ORD 19:15	49%	20%	1.3%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON