Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: YX 5794 at 09:10 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 31%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


YX 5794 Republic	BOS 09:10	ORF 11:02	13%	5%	1.1%	no record
B6 1813 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:48	ORF 18:38	31%	12%	0.8%	84%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 09:46 → ORF 11:28DL 2755	5h 58m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:45 → ATL 09:34DL 695	2h 54m Atlanta	ATL 12:28 → ORF 14:16DL 2925	7h 31m	99%	89%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 58m Dulles	IAD 13:05 → ORF 14:17UA 6313 · flown by Mesa	4h 52m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 10:03 → ORF 11:58DL 3066	6h 28m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 14:10 → ORF 15:50DL 1101	6h 45m	98%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 15:10 → ATL 18:10DL 638	2h 32m Atlanta	ATL 20:42 → ORF 22:30DL 2731	7h 20m	96%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	1h 46m Atlanta	ATL 17:07 → ORF 18:54DL 1346	6h 24m	99%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	2h 20m New York	JFK 09:50 → ORF 11:27DL 5370 · flown by Endeavor	5h 22m	99%	82%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309	52m Philadelphia	PHL 19:41 → ORF 20:51AA 5375 · flown by PSA	3h 46m	59%	45%
Delta Details →	BOS 18:00 → LGA 19:34DL 5831 · flown by Republic	1h 21m New York	LGA 20:55 → ORF 22:52DL 5332 · flown by Endeavor	4h 52m	71%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON