Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 4:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 1580 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–45%.

Safest bet that day DL 1580 BOS 07:05 → MCO 10:11 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 451 BOS 19:17 → MCO 22:18 · 45% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1580 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:05	MCO 10:11	10%	3%	0.7%	91%
B6 351 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:16	MCO 09:20	14%	3%	1.1%	85%
AA 2720 American	BOS 08:59	MCO 12:05	15%	5%	1.1%	no record
B6 651 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:59	MCO 12:57	22%	7%	1.2%	80%
B6 2951 JetBlue	BOS 08:22	MCO 11:22	22%	6%	1.1%	no record
DL 2887 Delta Flight history →	BOS 15:27	MCO 18:54	25%	10%	1.9%	73%
F9 1977 Frontier Flight history →	BOS 11:23	MCO 14:31	25%	7%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
B6 2251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:44	MCO 16:59	29%	14%	4.5%	75%
B6 551 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:19	MCO 19:40	33%	17%	1.3%	66%
B6 251 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:55	MCO 23:10	42%	20%	1.2%	52%
B6 451 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:17	MCO 22:18	45%	20%	1.3%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON