Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:10, is the safest bet: 92% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AS 311 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 09:35	PDX 12:34	14%	3%	1.1%	88%
AS 1319 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 16:54	PDX 20:15	21%	7%	0.8%	71%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 55m Minneapolis	MSP 10:59 → PDX 12:41DL 1661	9h 46m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → SLC 09:17DL 859	1h 58m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	9h 05m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 28m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 45m	97%	89%
United Details →	BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647	3h 08m Denver	DEN 13:27 → PDX 15:13UA 2455	10h 28m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	8h 06m	97%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:15 → SLC 14:20DL 464	3h 05m Salt Lake City	SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18DL 1238	10h 03m	97%	86%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	11h 41m	99%	86%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49AA 3309	1h 20m Philadelphia	PHL 20:09 → PDX 23:12AA 2245	9h 07m	75%	59%
United Details →	BOS 15:45 → EWR 17:14UA 1647	1h 15m Newark	EWR 18:29 → PDX 21:32UA 560	8h 47m	63%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON