Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 19 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 1540 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–38%.

Safest bet that day AA 1540 BOS 05:55 → PHL 07:35 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 3309 BOS 17:05 → PHL 18:49 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 58% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1540 American Flight history →	BOS 05:55	PHL 07:35	7%	3%	1.9%	91%
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 06:50	PHL 08:30	8%	3%	1.6%	89%
B6 1159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHL 08:30	12%	4%	1.8%	93%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 10:50	PHL 12:28	14%	4%	1.5%	87%
YX 4416 Republic	BOS 14:04	PHL 15:45	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
AA 2764 American Flight history →	BOS 08:03	PHL 09:40	16%	4%	2.5%	91%
AA 2788 American	BOS 09:41	PHL 11:28	16%	5%	1.7%	no record
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:10	PHL 16:53	19%	7%	1.0%	78%
AA 4643 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:57	PHL 22:46	20%	7%	1.1%	80%
AA 2783 American Flight history →	BOS 10:49	PHL 12:26	21%	6%	1.9%	82%
AA 2086 American Flight history →	BOS 12:58	PHL 14:39	23%	7%	1.1%	75%
DL 5610 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:25	PHL 22:07	23%	8%	1.1%	57%
B6 1859 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 13:22	PHL 15:00	25%	10%	1.2%	69%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 17:20	PHL 19:15	27%	10%	1.2%	66%
B6 159 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:27	PHL 22:06	29%	12%	1.0%	89%worse than usual
B6 2459 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:08	PHL 17:47	29%	12%	1.0%	69%
AA 1776 American Flight history →	BOS 15:14	PHL 16:55	30%	8%	1.0%	72%
AA 2110 American	BOS 19:28	PHL 21:09	35%	11%	0.8%	no record
AA 3309 American Flight history →	BOS 17:05	PHL 18:49	38%	11%	1.1%	58%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON