Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: AA 2315 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day AA 2315 BOS 07:00 → PHX 09:33 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest B6 1303 BOS 19:40 → PHX 22:24 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2315 American Flight history →	BOS 07:00	PHX 09:33	12%	4%	0.8%	90%
AA 1653 American Flight history →	BOS 09:57	PHX 12:41	16%	5%	0.9%	84%
AA 1057 American Flight history →	BOS 13:00	PHX 15:45	18%	7%	0.7%	80%
AA 3313 American Flight history →	BOS 17:07	PHX 19:50	28%	11%	0.7%	67%
DL 514 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:50	PHX 20:28	30%	10%	0.6%	70%
B6 1303 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:40	PHX 22:24	36%	13%	0.7%	73%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	1h 24m Minneapolis	MSP 09:28 → PHX 10:43DL 2208	7h 48m	98%	88%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 28m Dulles	IAD 08:51 → PHX 10:40UA 709	7h 55m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	57m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	7h 14m	94%	85%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON