Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5678 at 08:15 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 5678 BOS 08:15 → PIT 10:19 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2185 BOS 17:53 → PIT 19:48 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5678 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:15	PIT 10:19	10%	3%	1.0%	92%
B6 1585 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 06:30	PIT 08:26	11%	3%	1.1%	89%
DL 5731 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 11:45	PIT 13:41	15%	4%	0.9%	91%
B6 385 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 10:44	PIT 12:40	20%	6%	1.8%	86%
DL 5680 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:15	PIT 18:23	24%	7%	1.0%	81%
DL 5679 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 20:10	PIT 22:13	28%	8%	1.1%	67%
B6 1785 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:48	PIT 17:46	31%	13%	1.0%	71%
B6 2185 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:53	PIT 19:48	39%	17%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON