Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2066 at 06:20 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–42%.

Safest bet that day DL 2066 BOS 06:20 → RDU 08:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 2783 BOS 19:06 → RDU 21:13 · 42% chance 15+ min late · usually 62% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2066 Delta Flight history →	BOS 06:20	RDU 08:28	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 2118 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:00	RDU 12:04	17%	4%	1.2%	89%
B6 2083 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:01	RDU 10:08	22%	6%	1.1%	85%
DL 2283 Delta Flight history →	BOS 13:03	RDU 15:09	22%	7%	0.8%	83%
B6 2283 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 11:19	RDU 13:20	27%	9%	1.1%	78%
B6 2383 JetBlue	BOS 14:16	RDU 16:22	31%	12%	0.9%	no record
DL 2782 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:15	RDU 19:37	32%	13%	0.8%	75%
DL 817 Delta Flight history →	BOS 20:05	RDU 22:15	34%	10%	0.7%	55%
B6 2783 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 19:06	RDU 21:13	42%	16%	0.9%	62%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON