Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 5622 at 08:55 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–34%.

Safest bet that day DL 5622 BOS 08:55 → RIC 10:53 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest B6 381 BOS 20:03 → RIC 21:57 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5622 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 08:55	RIC 10:53	12%	4%	1.0%	89%
B6 1281 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:04	RIC 10:57	15%	6%	1.1%	86%
DL 5665 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:10	RIC 18:17	23%	8%	0.9%	79%
B6 781 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 15:40	RIC 17:29	25%	12%	0.9%	75%
B6 381 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 20:03	RIC 21:57	34%	13%	0.9%	70%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON