Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: AA 4171 at 09:55 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 4171 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BOS 09:55	ROC 11:30	11%	3%	1.1%	94%
AA 4709 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 16:19	ROC 17:57	22%	8%	1.4%	76%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	1h 44m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → ROC 12:14AA 2742	6h 09m	96%	87%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	6h 01m	96%	86%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 02m Dulles	IAD 08:25 → ROC 09:52UA 4615 · flown by GoJet	4h 07m	96%	86%
American Details →	BOS 05:55 → PHL 07:35AA 1540	1h 15m Philadelphia	PHL 08:50 → ROC 10:21AA 6126 · flown by Piedmont	4h 26m	95%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 50m New York	JFK 09:20 → ROC 10:53DL 5330 · flown by Endeavor	4h 48m	98%	82%
United Details →	BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098	1h 43m Dulles	IAD 12:50 → ROC 14:18UA 4485 · flown by GoJet	4h 53m	97%	82%
American Details →	BOS 05:10 → ORD 07:04AA 3324	1h 03m Chicago	ORD 08:07 → ROC 10:50AA 4104 · flown by Envoy	5h 40m	94%	81%
JetBlue Details →	BOS 06:16 → MCO 09:20B6 351	1h 21m Orlando	MCO 10:41 → ROC 13:28B6 1042	7h 12m	93%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	BOS 10:49 → PHL 12:26AA 2783	51m Philadelphia	PHL 13:17 → ROC 14:48AA 5907 · flown by Piedmont	3h 56m	72%	55%
Delta Details →	BOS 18:59 → LGA 20:29DL 5716 · flown by Republic	1h 19m New York	LGA 21:48 → ROC 23:23DL 5417 · flown by Endeavor	4h 19m	66%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON