Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 219 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 24% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 32–38%.

Safest bet that day B6 219 BOS 08:50 → SAN 11:55 · 24% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AS 389 BOS 18:16 → SAN 21:16 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 70% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 219 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:50	SAN 11:55	24%	6%	0.8%	89%worse than usual
WN 2611 Southwest	BOS 10:51	SAN 14:04	29%	8%	1.6%	no record
AS 256 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 08:28	SAN 11:43	29%	4%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
B6 319 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 16:20	SAN 19:27	32%	8%	0.8%	79%worse than usual
DL 571 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:10	SAN 20:25	35%	10%	0.6%	70%
AS 389 Alaska Flight history →	BOS 18:16	SAN 21:16	38%	10%	0.8%	70%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 25m New York	JFK 08:55 → SAN 11:55DL 683	8h 50m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	1h 07m Detroit	DTW 08:45 → SAN 10:27DL 492	7h 57m	96%	80%
United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 03m Dulles	IAD 08:26 → SAN 10:49UA 1930	8h 04m	96%	80%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON