tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: United via Dulles, leaving 05:45, is the safest bet: 88% chance of reaching San Antonio on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 57% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 816 Delta Flight history → BOS 09:00 SAT 12:24 16% 5% 0.9% 58%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 3h 54m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 9h 08m 100% 90%
UnitedDetails → BOS 07:45 → DEN 10:19UA 647 3h 25m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 10h 10m 100% 88%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 02m Dulles IAD 08:25 → SAT 10:59UA 1789 6h 14m 96% 88%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303 56m Minneapolis MSP 09:00 → SAT 11:49DL 2667 6h 54m 95% 87%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:16 → MSP 10:27DL 1308 3h 53m Minneapolis MSP 14:20 → SAT 17:11DL 2580 9h 55m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 2h 54m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SAT 15:10DL 2009 8h 10m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456 3h 45m Atlanta ATL 15:40 → SAT 17:11DL 1465 9h 06m 99% 84%
AmericanDetails → BOS 07:00 → PHX 09:33AA 2315 2h 49m Phoenix PHX 12:22 → SAT 16:44AA 570 10h 44m 99% 84%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 11:49 → CLT 14:09AA 1557 49m Charlotte CLT 14:58 → SAT 17:04AA 2934 6h 15m 57% 48%
AmericanDetails → BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:55AA 1776 50m Philadelphia PHL 17:45 → SAT 20:49AA 2058 6h 35m 61% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON