Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 5615 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 09:26	SDF 12:09	11%	4%	1.0%	85%
YX 4362 Republic	BOS 13:16	SDF 15:59	14%	5%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Louisville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 10:30 → SDF 11:51DL 1481	6h 21m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	3h 29m Minneapolis	MSP 12:51 → SDF 15:49DL 4007 · flown by SkyWest	8h 39m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 14:22 → SDF 15:42DL 3195	7h 42m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322	3h 49m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → SDF 22:04DL 2842	8h 09m	99%	87%
American Details →	BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418	1h 57m Charlotte	CLT 10:27 → SDF 11:52AA 5145 · flown by PSA	5h 47m	96%	84%
American Details →	BOS 15:14 → PHL 16:55AA 1776	4h 00m Philadelphia	PHL 20:55 → SDF 23:16AA 4335 · flown by Republic	8h 02m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779	2h 38m Atlanta	ATL 17:59 → SDF 19:22DL 2831	6h 52m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → SDF 17:49DL 1126	7h 34m	98%	83%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	BOS 16:00 → LGA 17:30DL 5726 · flown by Republic	50m New York	LGA 18:20 → SDF 20:59DL 5636 · flown by Republic	4h 59m	57%	40%
United Details →	BOS 15:45 → EWR 17:14UA 1647	46m Newark	EWR 18:00 → SDF 20:25UA 3415 · flown by Republic	4h 40m	40%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON