Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: UA 2441 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–35%.

Safest bet that day UA 2441 BOS 06:00 → SFO 09:27 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest UA 2400 BOS 18:10 → SFO 21:47 · 35% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2441 United Flight history →	BOS 06:00	SFO 09:27	12%	3%	0.7%	86%
DL 977 Delta Flight history →	BOS 07:20	SFO 10:51	17%	5%	0.7%	82%
UA 2317 United	BOS 07:52	SFO 11:35	18%	6%	0.7%	no record
UA 726 United	BOS 09:25	SFO 13:05	18%	7%	0.7%	no record
B6 633 JetBlue	BOS 06:47	SFO 10:12	19%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 860 Delta Flight history →	BOS 10:11	SFO 13:45	21%	7%	0.8%	51%
UA 1074 United Flight history →	BOS 11:35	SFO 15:02	21%	9%	0.7%	80%
B6 833 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 09:57	SFO 13:20	22%	8%	1.0%	83%
UA 1367 United Flight history →	BOS 13:56	SFO 17:23	25%	10%	0.7%	84%
DL 1655 Delta Flight history →	BOS 17:05	SFO 20:51	28%	12%	0.6%	69%
B6 733 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 17:00	SFO 20:34	30%	16%	0.7%	59%
UA 754 United	BOS 16:15	SFO 19:42	30%	13%	0.6%	no record
B6 933 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 18:26	SFO 21:53	35%	17%	0.8%	71%
UA 2400 United Flight history →	BOS 18:10	SFO 21:47	35%	15%	0.6%	57%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


United Details →	BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734	1h 12m Dulles	IAD 08:35 → SFO 11:19UA 1147	8h 34m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611	1h 30m New York	JFK 09:00 → SFO 12:19DL 669	9h 14m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	BOS 07:10 → MSP 09:22DL 1138	1h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 11:00 → SFO 13:09DL 2074	8h 59m	99%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON