Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: WN 816 at 05:26 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 816 BOS 05:26 → STL 07:24 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 819 BOS 18:46 → STL 20:47 · 38% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 816 Southwest	BOS 05:26	STL 07:24	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
MQ 3546 Envoy	BOS 06:25	STL 08:27	12%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 4727 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BOS 15:15	STL 17:28	20%	7%	0.9%	81%
WN 1015 Southwest	BOS 11:51	STL 13:49	20%	4%	0.7%	no record
WN 819 Southwest	BOS 18:46	STL 20:47	38%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON