tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, AA 4635 at 08:36, with a 10% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AA 4635 American flown by Republic Flight history → BOS 08:36 SYR 10:06 10% 4% 0.7% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Syracuse on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 1h 46m Atlanta ATL 12:37 → SYR 14:48DL 2991 6h 48m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 54m Atlanta ATL 09:15 → SYR 11:25DL 1375 5h 55m 94% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 06:05 → JFK 07:30DL 2611 1h 40m New York JFK 09:10 → SYR 10:41DL 5436 · flown by Endeavor 4h 36m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → BOS 10:15 → ATL 13:04DL 385 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 15:43 → SYR 17:59DL 2690 7h 44m 97% 81%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:03 → PHL 09:40AA 2764 3h 32m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont 6h 31m 96% 80%
AmericanDetails → BOS 06:05 → CLT 08:30AA 418 2h 09m Charlotte CLT 10:39 → SYR 12:42AA 2730 6h 37m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → BOS 05:45 → IAD 07:23UA 1734 1h 06m Dulles IAD 08:29 → SYR 09:55UA 4370 · flown by CommuteAir 4h 10m 96% 80%
UnitedDetails → BOS 09:25 → IAD 11:07UA 2098 1h 28m Dulles IAD 12:35 → SYR 14:04UA 4499 · flown by GoJet 4h 39m 95% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → BOS 10:49 → PHL 12:26AA 2783 46m Philadelphia PHL 13:12 → SYR 14:34AA 5924 · flown by Piedmont 3h 45m 69% 58%
UnitedDetails → BOS 15:13 → ORD 17:05UA 1475 1h 04m Chicago ORD 18:09 → SYR 21:09UA 2481 5h 56m 72% 55%
DeltaDetails → BOS 18:59 → LGA 20:29DL 5716 · flown by Republic 1h 16m New York LGA 21:45 → SYR 23:12DL 5524 · flown by Endeavor 4h 13m 64% 37%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON