Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, B6 1263 at 08:18, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 1263 JetBlue Flight history →	BOS 08:18	TVC 10:42	24%	5%	1.1%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BOS 05:55 → MSP 08:04DL 2303	2h 20m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	6h 59m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	BOS 05:30 → DTW 07:38DL 1019	52m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → TVC 09:45DL 4721 · flown by Endeavor	4h 15m	93%	80%
American Details →	BOS 07:00 → ORD 09:01AA 1509	2h 56m Chicago	ORD 11:57 → TVC 14:10AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	7h 10m	96%	68%
Delta Details →	BOS 11:50 → MSP 14:02DL 1103	1h 23m Minneapolis	MSP 15:25 → TVC 17:55DL 4915 · flown by Endeavor	6h 05m	95%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON