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Thursday, October 8 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Valparaiso on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Valparaiso on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Valparaiso is 1 h behind Boston). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BOS 05:30 → ATL 08:21DL 2242 2h 23m Atlanta ATL 10:44 → VPS 11:00DL 2048 6h 30m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → BOS 12:30 → ATL 15:21DL 2779 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 18:01 → VPS 18:17DL 2803 6h 47m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 09:05 → ATL 11:55DL 456 3h 49m Atlanta ATL 15:44 → VPS 16:00DL 2170 7h 55m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → BOS 08:00 → ATL 10:51DL 923 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 13:50 → VPS 14:00DL 2832 7h 00m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → BOS 13:55 → ATL 16:49DL 322 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 20:35 → VPS 20:49DL 882 7h 54m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → BOS 11:49 → CLT 14:09AA 1557 2h 37m Charlotte CLT 16:46 → VPS 17:25AA 5201 · flown by PSA 6h 36m 100% 82%
AmericanDetails → BOS 08:01 → DFW 11:21AA 701 1h 59m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 13:20 → VPS 15:29AA 2501 8h 28m 98% 73%
AmericanDetails → BOS 13:11 → DFW 16:24AA 1438 2h 42m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 19:06 → VPS 21:11AA 1201 9h 00m 94% 65%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON