Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: one nonstop, WN 2784 at 10:41, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2784 Southwest	BUF 10:41	BNA 11:45	6%	2%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664	1h 52m Atlanta	ATL 09:57 → BNA 10:09DL 1155	5h 09m	99%	91%
American Details →	BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204	2h 34m Charlotte	CLT 10:35 → BNA 11:07AA 1295	6h 06m	98%	88%
Delta Details →	BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266	2h 07m Atlanta	ATL 21:30 → BNA 21:44DL 3002	5h 32m	97%	86%
United Details →	BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543	2h 44m Chicago	ORD 10:37 → BNA 12:29UA 2414	6h 33m	98%	85%
American Details →	BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont	3h 01m Philadelphia	PHL 09:47 → BNA 11:09AA 1320	6h 49m	98%	84%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 17:53 → BNA 18:05DL 758	6h 49m	100%	83%
American Details →	BUF 08:07 → ORD 09:17AA 1195	2h 15m Chicago	ORD 11:32 → BNA 13:16AA 2362	6h 09m	96%	82%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	48m Detroit	DTW 08:30 → BNA 09:11DL 2682	3h 42m	87%	79%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet	50m Chicago	ORD 15:45 → BNA 17:22UA 1897	4h 28m	61%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON