Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: B6 716 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–33%.

Safest bet that day B6 716 BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 4068 BUF 16:59 → BOS 18:34 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 67% on time

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 716 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 06:00	BOS 07:25	7%	4%	1.5%	82%
AA 4788 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 07:15	BOS 08:51	7%	3%	1.2%	93%
AA 4666 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:41	BOS 13:16	14%	4%	0.8%	94%
B6 916 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 14:18	BOS 15:58	30%	16%	1.1%	65%
B6 516 JetBlue Flight history →	BUF 18:40	BOS 20:20	31%	15%	1.5%	56%
AA 4068 American flown by Envoy Flight history →	BUF 16:59	BOS 18:34	33%	12%	0.8%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON