Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: OH 5096 at 05:29 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–31%.

Safest bet that day OH 5096 BUF 05:29 → DCA 07:04 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5237 BUF 17:45 → DCA 19:20 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5096 PSA	BUF 05:29	DCA 07:04	9%	7%	1.4%	no record
AA 4647 American flown by Republic Flight history →	BUF 11:44	DCA 13:26	15%	4%	0.7%	43%
AA 5051 American flown by PSA Flight history →	BUF 14:22	DCA 15:57	27%	11%	1.8%	90%worse than usual
OH 5237 PSA	BUF 17:45	DCA 19:20	31%	14%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON