Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Denver on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


UA 1727 United Flight history →	BUF 09:00	DEN 10:35	8%	3%	0.6%	86%
WN 839 Southwest	BUF 16:51	DEN 18:24	23%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Denver on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Denver is 2 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 09:54 → DEN 11:05DL 995	7h 05m	99%	87%
American Details →	BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204	2h 50m Charlotte	CLT 10:51 → DEN 12:26AA 1662	8h 25m	98%	84%
American Details →	BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont	2h 37m Philadelphia	PHL 09:23 → DEN 11:30AA 1313	8h 10m	98%	83%
United Details →	BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 10:56 → DEN 12:36UA 2857	7h 40m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898	58m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 18m	93%	82%
Delta Details →	BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384	2h 21m Atlanta	ATL 16:43 → DEN 17:56DL 519	7h 40m	99%	81%
American Details →	BUF 08:07 → ORD 09:17AA 1195	2h 53m Chicago	ORD 12:10 → DEN 14:07AA 1277	8h 00m	96%	77%
JetBlue Details →	BUF 06:00 → BOS 07:25B6 716	1h 52m Boston	BOS 09:17 → DEN 11:54B6 393	7h 54m	97%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON