tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Dallas-Fort Worth on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 40% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 882 American Flight history → BUF 07:01 DFW 09:25 7% 3% 0.9% 87%
AA 1724 American Flight history → BUF 16:55 DFW 19:24 21% 7% 1.0% 60%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dallas-Fort Worth on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dallas-Fort Worth is 1 h behind Buffalo). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 1h 47m Atlanta ATL 09:52 → DFW 11:12DL 961 6h 12m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 3h 25m Charlotte CLT 11:26 → DFW 13:16AA 2747 8h 15m 98% 84%
AmericanDetails → BUF 05:20 → PHL 06:46AA 5873 · flown by Piedmont 3h 58m Philadelphia PHL 10:44 → DFW 13:09AA 3326 8h 49m 98% 84%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543 2h 36m Chicago ORD 10:29 → DFW 13:12UA 441 7h 16m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUF 09:00 → DEN 10:35UA 1727 3h 10m Denver DEN 13:45 → DFW 16:51UA 578 8h 51m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 3h 23m Atlanta ATL 17:45 → DFW 19:05DL 1827 7h 49m 100% 81%
AmericanDetails → BUF 11:44 → DCA 13:26AA 4647 · flown by Republic 1h 47m Washington DCA 15:13 → DFW 17:44AA 1624 7h 00m 95% 80%
DeltaDetails → BUF 17:12 → ATL 19:23DL 2266 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 20:50 → DFW 22:11DL 3161 5h 59m 93% 79%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → BUF 18:04 → ORD 19:03UA 2747 47m Chicago ORD 19:50 → DFW 22:36UA 1673 5h 32m 40% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON