Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Thu, Oct 8: DL 2898 at 06:29 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 2898 BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest OO 3870 BUF 15:54 → DTW 17:12 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Thu, Oct 8

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2898 Delta Flight history →	BUF 06:29	DTW 07:42	7%	2%	0.7%	90%
OO 3863 SkyWest	BUF 09:06	DTW 10:24	10%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3861 SkyWest	BUF 12:03	DTW 13:21	14%	7%	0.7%	no record
OO 3870 SkyWest	BUF 15:54	DTW 17:12	19%	8%	0.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON