tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Thursday, October 8 · typical odds for a Thursday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Thu, Oct 8: Delta via Detroit, leaving 06:29, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Newark on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:29 → DTW 07:42DL 2898 2h 33m Detroit DTW 10:15 → EWR 11:56DL 2577 5h 27m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → BUF 06:00 → ATL 08:05DL 2664 2h 00m Atlanta ATL 10:05 → EWR 12:21DL 2401 6h 21m 99% 85%
AmericanDetails → BUF 06:01 → CLT 08:01AA 1204 2h 42m Charlotte CLT 10:43 → EWR 12:41AA 1697 6h 40m 98% 82%
UnitedDetails → BUF 06:56 → ORD 07:53UA 543 2h 58m Chicago ORD 10:51 → EWR 14:17UA 1856 7h 21m 99% 78%
AmericanDetails → BUF 08:07 → ORD 09:17AA 1195 1h 03m Chicago ORD 10:20 → EWR 13:49AA 2416 5h 42m 90% 67%
DeltaDetails → BUF 12:16 → ATL 14:22DL 1384 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:33 → EWR 17:54DL 2340 5h 38m 91% 60%
AmericanDetails → BUF 13:04 → CLT 15:04AA 1203 3h 40m Charlotte CLT 18:44 → EWR 20:42AA 997 7h 38m 97% 55%
UnitedDetails → BUF 13:54 → ORD 14:55UA 4381 · flown by GoJet 3h 07m Chicago ORD 18:02 → EWR 21:13UA 2790 7h 19m 93% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Thu, Oct 8 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON